{"id":22892,"date":"2020-02-19T21:58:03","date_gmt":"2020-02-19T21:58:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realta.cp03.id-3.net\/lets-talk-numbers\/"},"modified":"2022-01-25T14:56:19","modified_gmt":"2022-01-25T14:56:19","slug":"lets-talk-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/en\/lets-talk-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"Let\u2019s talk numbers."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Missed the Real Estate Wine &amp; Cheese? Here are the key highlights!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Like everyone else, you\u2019re seeing a booming real estate market on the island of Montreal and wish you could predict the future so that you would know what to expect. <strong>Fran\u00e7ois Bissonnette<\/strong> decided to try his hand at this exercise and came up with two possible scenarios.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Before venturing into the future, however, let\u2019s look at the present situation: between 2015 and 2019, the number of homeowners planning to sell their homes fell; the number of homes actually listed for sale fell even further \u2013 by more than half in 5 years. This can be partly explained by the ever-growing number of home sales.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_6-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">Add to this rising home prices, which puts even more pressure on buyers looking to buy a property at a decent price. This in turn is causing the number of home sales to climb. In short, a seller\u2019s market of the likes we have rarely seen on the island.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_7-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">In the last two months, experts have been left speechless by the market\u2019s confusing statistics:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">In December 2019: Home sales rose by 23%, while inventory fell by 24%. That\u2019s a record for December, which is normally a slow month.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">In January 2020: Home sales rose by 18%, while inventory fell by 24%. On top of this is a 6% drop in new listings, whose impact will be felt in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><u><span lang=\"EN-CA\">For 2020:<\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">Despite a sluggish global economy, economic fundamentals will remain strong for Montreal real estate, as low and stable mortgage rates continue to bolster the market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">On the other hand, the drop in listings and new inventory could negatively impact sales, which will further push prices upward on the island of Montreal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">Little by little, these rising prices will shrink the pool of first-time buyers on the island, leading to urban sprawl.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><u><span lang=\"EN-CA\">As for what\u2019s to come:<\/span><\/u><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">SCENARIO 1<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">In this scenario, the number of home sales would remain stable at 19,000. So would the number of homeowners planning to sell: at 24,000 for the next three years. The island would become even more of a sellers\u2019 market, with around 4 sellers for every buyer. Prices would increase by about 7% per year in central areas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">For Outremont this represents an increase of 21% over three years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">A condo that sold for $625,000 in 2019 would sell for $790,000 in 2022. A single-family home selling for $1,800,000 in 2019 would sell for $2,275,000 in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">SCENARIO 2<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">In this scenario, the number of home sales would drop by 4% per year, accompanied by a 4% annual increase in the number of homeowners planning to sell over the next three years. The island would continue to be a sellers\u2019 market until the end of 2022 before returning to a more balanced state. Prices would increase by about 5% per year in central areas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">For Outremont, this represents a 15% increase over three years, or $100,000 for the average Outremont condo and $280,000 for the average Outremont home.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">In summary, regardless of which scenario comes to pass, we should see prices increase between 15% and 21% in the next three years \u2013 unless there\u2019s a global recession.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-CA\">Which scenario do you think is most likely to happen?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_3-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_5-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_4-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_8-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.realta.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Stats.-RBC-5@7-ANG_9-1.png\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Missed the Real Estate Wine &amp; Cheese? Here are the key highlights! Like everyone else, you\u2019re seeing a booming real estate market on the island of Montreal and wish you could predict the future so that you would know what to expect. Fran\u00e7ois Bissonnette decided to try his hand at this exercise and came up [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[37],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v18.4.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Let\u2019s talk numbers. | DEV ! Realta<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Let\u2019s talk numbers. | DEV ! 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